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The bullwhip effect (BWE) is an important phenomenon in the operations and supply chain management field. Although it is commonly accepted that the BWE is widespread and can have a significant adverse impact on financial performance, there is surprisingly limited objective evidence on the financial consequences of the BWE. This paper examines the impact of the BWE on financial performance by examining the relationship between the BWE and stock price performance. The empirical analysis is based on data from 1985 to 2018 from about 7,200 publicly traded firms and about 64,000 firm-years. We find that most results on the impact of the BWE on stock returns are statistically indistinguishable from zero. The few marginally significant results that we find suggest a positive relationship between the BWE and stock returns rather than the expected negative relationship. However, these marginally significant results do not hold when alternate methods are used to test the relationships. These conclusions are robust when we segment the sample by size, industry, and time periods. We also do not find a significant relationship between the BWE and stock returns for samples based on the propagation of the BWE from customers to suppliers. We do find some evidence to suggest that the BWE has a negative impact on inventory turnover. However, we do not find similar evidence for capacity utilization. The relationships between the BWE and return on assets measures are statistically insignificant. For margin measures, the relationships are positive and statistically significant but not economically significant.
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主讲人简介:
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Vinod Singhal 是美国佐治亚理工学院 Scheller 商学院运营管理领域的 Charles W. Brady 教授。他拥有美国罗切斯特大学的博士学位。在加入佐治亚理工学院之前，他曾在通用汽车研究实验室担任高级研究科学家。
Vinod 的研究重点是运营决策对会计和股票市场绩效指标的影响。他的研究获得了美国劳工部、国家科学基金会、美国质量协会和斯隆基金会的资助。他在学术期刊上发表了大量研究，并在不同大学进行了超过 200 次演讲。他的研究在业界得到了广泛认可，不仅在行业实践期刊上发表了多篇文章，还频繁受邀在实践者会议上担任主旨演讲嘉宾。他的研究成果被《商业周刊》、《经济学人》、《财富》、《Smart Money》、《CFO Europe》、《金融时报》、《投资者日报》和《每日电讯报》等行业出版物引用超过 200 次。此外，他的研究在学术界也被广泛引用，累计引用次数接近 15,000 次。他的论文“An empirical analysis of the effect of supply chain disruptions on long‐run stock price performance and equity risk of the firm”在 2024 年被评选为过去 30 年中POMS十大论文之一。Vinod 是POMS的Departmental Editor，以及Management Science的Associate Editor。他是Production and Operations Management Society的会士。他还曾担任德国欧洲管理与技术学院的学术顾问委员会成员。
Vinod 的教学兴趣包括运营战略和供应链管理。他还在国际层面上贡献颇多，曾在澳大利亚、中国、法国、德国、香港、印度、新西兰、新加坡、韩国、西班牙、瑞典和英国等国家开设研究工作坊。
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